Looking Ahead to the Fed

With little scheduled economic news and a couple of major events on the horizon, there was little change in mortgage markets during the week. The daily volatility remained high, however. Mortgage rates ended a little higher than the prior week, and the stock market was almost flat. Investors were mostly preparing for next week’s Fed meeting and Employment data.   Investor sentiment for future Fed actions has shifted significantly over the last couple of weeks. Just weeks ago, investors were expecting an additional three quarters of a point of Fed rate cuts over the next two meetings. Now many believe that the Fed will cut rates by only one quarter point at Wednesday’s meeting and then will hold rates steady. The thinking is that the Fed will pause to consider the effects on the economy of prior rate cuts, other expansionary monetary policies, and fiscal stimulus packages (such as the tax rebates). With energy prices at record levels and the dollar at historic lows, the Fed wants to balance the risk of slower economic growth with the need to prevent higher future inflation. This path could be good for mortgage markets, as higher inflation would generally lead to higher mortgage rates.   In the housing sector, the market for existing home sales showed additional signs of stabilizing, while new home sales displayed weakness. Matching expectations, March Existing Home Sales fell a little from February. Median home prices fell 8% from one year ago, while inventories of unsold homes rose slightly. March New Home Sales fell 9% from February. The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggested that housing market conditions varied greatly in different regions of the country. The NAR predicted that housing market activity will be flat for a few more months and then will pick up during the second half of the year. Compliments of Corey Phelps, Front Street Mortgage (231) 360-7283 email: corey@frontstreetmtg.com