Mortgage Rates Higher

After two weeks of nice declines, mortgage rates rose during the week, back to the levels seen at the end of February. March was an extremely volatile month, with large daily swings a common occurrence. Investors bought mortgage backed securities during periods of increased concern about the stability of the credit markets. Just as quickly, they sold mortgage backed securities when the fears eased. Last week, investors generally felt that the Fed’s rate cuts and other actions were sufficient to combat the difficulties in credit markets, demand for mortgage investments fell, and mortgage rates rose.

 Mortgage rates were also hurt last week by a series of Fed officials who talked tough about inflation. Higher inflation is bad news for mortgage markets, as investors require a higher yield to offset the inflation. With all the attention on inflation, Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator was highly anticipated. The February Core PCE price index rose at a 2.0% annual rate, as expected, which was at the upper boundary of the Fed’s perceived comfort zone.

 In the housing sector, the news was somewhat encouraging. February Existing Home Sales came in stronger than expected. The inventory of unsold homes declined modestly, while median prices fell. Sales activity has held in a narrow range since September, and the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggested that the data was “another sign that the market is stabilizing”. February New Home Sales also came in a little higher than the consensus. Separately, the government’s OFHEO housing index showed that January prices were down 3% from one year earlier.

Compliments of Corey Phelps, Front Street Mortgage. email corey@frontstreetmtg.com

Investors Push Up Mortgage Rates

In a week packed with major economic news, the biggest story for mortgage markets was the widening spread between mortgage backed securities and Treasury bonds. Issued by the US government, Treasury bonds are generally considered to be the benchmark for a “safe” security, since the risk of default is extremely low. During the week, the economic news was mixed, and Treasury rates barely changed. Mortgage rates, however, jumped by about half a point. Investors are demanding a higher return from mortgage backed securities, and the result is higher mortgage rates. In another unusual reversal, the mortgage market has been more volatile than the Treasury market, and wide swings in mortgage rates have become a daily occurrence.

 On the economic front, the highly anticipated Employment report failed to meet even Wall Street’s reduced forecast. Against expectations for a gain of 25K new jobs, the economy lost -63K jobs in February, and the figures for January and December were revised lower as well. This marked the largest monthly decline since March 2003. The Unemployment Rate surprisingly fell to 4.8%, but that reflects a large number of people who stopped looking for a job last month, meaning that they officially left the labor pool. Once again, the manufacturing and construction sectors showed the greatest weakness. Until November, the service sector had been steadily producing job gains of 100K or more per month, but even that sector barely produced any new jobs in February.

 Big news came out from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). In accordance with the new legislation passed a couple of weeks ago, HUD released the new loan limits for FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, and they did it a week earlier than expected. The new minimum for FHA is $271,050 with a maximum of $729,750. The Fannie/Freddie minimum remains at $417,000 with a maximum of $729,750. The formula is based on 125% of each region’s median price within the posted limits. 250 regions will be eligible for higher caps, and more than 70 regions will be eligible for the maximum. As a practical matter, it will still take some time for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA to prepare their systems and implement the changes.

Compliments of Corey Phelps, Front Street Mortgage (231) 360-7283 email: corey@frontstreetmtg.com